Market Update – March 2019

First, an announcement.  As many of my clients know, I donate a portion of every single one of my commission cheques to the Miracle Children’s Network.  Being able to give and share is a privilege that I am humbled to be able to do.  On top of that, I have started coaching new Re/Max agents on building a solid foundation for their business based on integrity, trust, and ethics.  I will continue to strive to be better for my clients, and better for our next generation.  Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to being your go-to specialist for all your Real Estate needs.

Back to regular scheduled programming… 

March 2019 statistics have been released.  Spring market typically officially starts right after Spring Break is over, therefore these stats packages from March would include half a month of the Winter market and half a month of the Spring market, which results in the average numbers shown.  Please take the time to read through this email as I have included some additional info that isn’t available to the public, which may affect your market greatly in the near future.

According to the Real Estate Board:

VANCOUVER, BC – April 2, 2019 – Metro Vancouver* home sales dipped to the lowest levels seen in March in more than three decades.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,727 in March 2019, a 31.4 per cent decrease from the 2,517 sales recorded in March 2018, and a 16.4 per cent increase from the 1,484 homes sold in February 2019.

Last month’s sales were 46.3 per cent below the 10-year March sales average and was the lowest total for the month since 1986.

“Housing demand today isn’t aligning with our growing economy and low unemployment rates.  The market trends we’re seeing are largely policy induced,” Ashley Smith, REBGV president said. “For three years, governments at all levels have imposed new taxes and borrowing requirements on to the housing market.”

“What policymakers are failing to recognize is that demand-side measures don’t eliminate demand, they sideline potential home buyers in the short term. That demand is ultimately
satisfied down the line because shelter needs don’t go away. Using public policy to delay local demand in the housing market just feeds disruptive cycles that have been so well-documented in our region.”

ADDITIONAL INFO THAT YOU DON’T SEE

In last month’s newsletter, we saw a slight uptick in some condo submarkets.  As you can see from the Real Estate Board Statistics attached below, this past month we are seeing the trickle effect to more condo markets, even some townhome and single detached home markets.  Again, this validates our analysis from the previous few months with regards to the market activity.  The only question mark is how long it would last.

We have seen many valid indications that the current market is “artificial”, encouraged and manipulated by government policies and taxes, federal interest rates, etc.  It is more political than economical, which is never a long-term solution.  However, right or wrong, this is the situation we are in.

Again, the Real Estate Board stats are very generic and without context to the end user.  Unfortunately as these statistics are public and free, the media uses them often, and sometimes for political purposes.

Just as before, I’m here to provide some detailed relevant information segmenting different markets, to make it more applicable to your situation.

As usual, at the bottom of this email, you will find a copy of the Snap Stats, which is something we pay for to benefit our knowledge to our clients.  As many of our investor clients know, the price range of sub-markets are critical to the liquidity of the asset.  There are a lot of science and theories that gets proven again and again, that is difficult to put into an email.  So if you have questions, we would be happy to discuss it with you over the phone or face to face.  Please do feel free to call Alex at 604-374-5534.

In the Snap Stats attached below, you will find the activity of the different price ranges per area.  As a rule of thumb, sales ratio under 12% represents a downward pressure (Buyers’ market).  Sales ratio between 12% to 20% represents a balanced market.  Sales ratio above 20% represents an upward pressure (Sellers’ market).  Over the last 4 months, we have seen an rise in demand within the lower price bands, which theoretically should start to affect market prices.  This month, you can see from the Real Estate Board Statistics that prices have indeed started to decelerate downwards, and some markets are seeing continued uptick in prices.

This spring would be very telling in what our market will do over the next few years.  But if you are looking to make a move to sell this year, right now would be your best chance.  Call or Email Alex to arrange a quick 30-minute chat to see whether it’s right for you right now.  Everyone’s priorities and timing are different, and you need to equip yourself with the best and most relevant information for you and your family.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO YOU?

Sellers – Your pricing need to remain SHARP. Activity is picking up, and Spring is in the air.  There is still a lot of supply to compete with, but the buyers are there now.  If you have a home to sell, we can sell it.  This is probably going to be the best chance you’ll have this year.  Give me a call or email, and we can walk through exactly how the process will work.  Just make the call, and I’ll do the rest.  You will be surprised at what I can do in this market.  But be prepared to remain flexible with your pricing.  If you are looking to Sell then Buy, make sure you are focusing on the price difference, and not the absolute sale price of your home.

Buyers – If you’re searching in the lower price end of your submarket, know what you are looking for, then go and look for it.  You still have time on the higher end of the market.  But understand that many more Buyers just like you are out shopping now.  Make sure your Realtor does a full Comparative Analysis on the property you wish to purchase, so you know what the market value is when you make the offer.  I’d be privileged to assist if you are in need of expertise and representation.

 

Detailed Real Estate Board Statistics Package